Expert Report: Florida Hits Population Saturation, New Residents No Longer Welcome, Disney in Jeopardy

Florida is seemingly hitting a capacity issue, with millions relocating to the Sunshine State.

In 2022, it was measured that the population of the United States of America was 333.3 million people, dispersed all 50 states, but at that time, Florida did not make the top 3 list for residents, but it always made the top of the list for tourism.

When surveyed in 2022, it was found that Florida and New York were the two most visited states by adults in the United States, having been visited by 61 and 54 percent of respondents, respectively. Well over 125 million visitors tend to frequent Florida annually, not only to visit the blue beaches and experience a tropical paradise, but to see all of the incredible theme parks like Walt Disney World Resort and Universal Orlando Resort.

After the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, even more people began flocking to Florida — and California was no exception. Nearly 740,000 people moved to Florida from other parts of the country in 2022, and California migrants accounted for over 50,000 — approximately 7% — of them, per Click Orlando.

The cost of living in Orlando, FL is 3% higher than the state average and 4% higher than the national average. Housing in Orlando is 11% more expensive than the U.S. average, although utilities are about 7% cheaper.

For basic necessities, groceries cost about 5% more in Orlando compared to the national average, and clothing is also around 5% more expensive. The increase in people moving to the state has only heightened demand and, therefore, the cost of housing prices and rent.

With a significant portion of Orlando’s residents employed in customer service roles within the theme park industry, the current pay scale has left many struggling. This was highlighted during last year’s higher wage protest by Disney cast members, where workers reported being unable to afford essentials like food and diapers despite working full-time for the company.

The Sunshine State has reached a significant demographic milestone, surpassing the 23 million resident mark for the first time in its history. This surge in population is primarily attributed to a consistent influx of residents from other states, per The Orlando Sentinel. 

According to the state Demographic Estimating Conference, Florida’s population reached 23,002,597 as of April 1, 2024. This remarkable growth trajectory solidifies Florida’s position as the third most populous state in the nation, trailing only California and Texas.

The state has experienced an average annual population increase of approximately 350,000 to 375,000 over the past decade. However, this rapid growth is projected to decelerate in the coming years. As the final cohort of baby boomers enters retirement, the state’s population growth rate is expected to peak in 2024, gradually declining to under 1% by the early 2030s.

Florida’s allure as a destination for retirees, coupled with its favorable business climate and lifestyle amenities, has contributed to its robust population expansion. As the state navigates this period of unprecedented growth, it faces the challenge of managing infrastructure, housing, and resource allocation to accommodate its burgeoning population.

While the influx of new residents has undoubtedly fueled economic growth and development, it also presents significant challenges in terms of preserving the state’s natural resources and maintaining its quality of life. Balancing the needs of a growing population with environmental sustainability will be a critical focus for Florida policymakers in the years to come.

It will be interesting to see how this growth affects the Walt Disney World theme parks. While Disney is huge, the size of San Francisco to be exact, each of the theme parks do have capacity limits. Magic Kingdom, for example, hits a capacity limit of around 100,000 people.

While that limit is not hit often, it does certainly hit on popular holidays, especially with the slowly fading park pass reservation system that many Annual Passholders are still forced to use.

If there are more residents, there will certainly be more guests visiting the Disney parks, which could mean that those popular days will hit capacity on a more frequent basis. It will also likely mean that the cost of living in the state will go up.

The cost of a Disney vacation has recently skyrocketed, and next year, Disney CEO Bob Iger has confirmed prices will rise yet again for tickets, along with the steadying rise of food, drink, merchandise, and hotel prices.

With more visitors and more demand at the parks and in the state, these costs will likely see a better return for The Walt Disney Company, making them a financially successful choice, even if it means having guests pay more for the same (or in some cases, less) quality.

One main reason that some residents have moved to Florida is for its political leader, Ron DeSantis.

Recently, we saw Florida Governor Ron DeSantis make a surprise appearance at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, he took the stage to address the crowd, which notably included former President Donald Trump.

This announcement came amid growing concerns that The Walt Disney Company might abandon Florida despite its promises of substantial investments. CEO Bob Iger had previously threatened to pull Disney operations from the state after DeSantis took control of the Reedy Creek Improvement District, renaming it the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District (CFTOD).

From 1967 until 2022, Walt Disney World Resort wielded control over the Reedy Creek municipal area. In 2022, DeSantis dissolved the district soon after former Disney CEO Bob Chapek publicly condemned the Parental Rights in Education Act, colloquially known as the “Don’t Say Gay” law.

This law spurred protests from LGBTQIA+ Disney supporters and cast members.

Disney’s lawsuit against Governor DeSantis, alleging retaliation against its First Amendment rights, was dismissed by a federal judge in January. While Iger initially vowed to fight back, he has since resumed political donations in Florida and promised expansions for Walt Disney World Resort.

As DeSantis exited the Republican presidential primary, he endorsed Trump and passionately supported him during his speech at the convention.

“My fellow Republicans, let’s send Joe Biden back to his basement, and let’s send Donald Trump back to the White House!” DeSantis declared with fervor.

Following the applause, DeSantis claimed that Trump would make life in the United States “more affordable,” a claim resonating with those who have noticed the increasing costs at Walt Disney World Resort, sparking theories that the rising living expenses have contributed to the recent low attendance.

The truth is, whether you like DeSantis or not, Florida is brimming with capacity.

Polls reveal that the majority of Florida voters think that ongoing population growth will negatively impact the state’s quality of life. Over 70 percent consider overcrowding and overpopulation in Florida to be significant issues. Nearly 60 percent believe that increasing Florida’s population by another five million people is a serious concern.

Forty percent feel that the state has become less comfortable to live in over the past five years. Furthermore, 68 percent agree that “Florida would be better off in the long term with a smaller population to maintain a sound economy and a healthy environment.”

Have you ever considered moving to Florida? Why or why would you not?