May the 4th 2026 Could Be a Total Bust for ‘Star Wars’ Fans

Next May the 4th could be a total disaster for countless Star Wars fans.

For nearly half a century, Star Wars has been one of cinema’s most reliable brands. From George Lucas’ original trilogy to the billion-dollar grosses of the Disney era, the franchise has endured creative ups and downs but always drawn audiences.

But that box office-winning streak may soon be tested.

Disney’s next theatrical outing, The Mandalorian & Grogu, arrives in May 2026. Rather than following the Skywalker saga or introducing a new era, the film extends a streaming series that already feels past its peak. The first official trailer landed last week, and it’s struggling to capture attention. The visuals look also more suited to Disney+ than a cinematic release, and with season 3 of The Mandalorian widely criticized, enthusiasm for another chapter feels muted to say the least. Watch the trailer below:

Related: Years After Sequel Trilogy, Disney Has Recast Rey Skywalker in ‘Star Wars’

Of course, the franchise has stumbled before. Solo: A Star Wars Story fell short at the box office in 2018, earning $393 million against a steep production budget. Every other live-action installment — even the divisive sequel trilogy — was a huge box office hit.

But if The Mandalorian & Grogu underperforms, it would mark the first real financial failure for Star Wars on the big screen. But more importantly, it’s how many fans are currently feeling that’s the real tragedy.

The possibility of the film flopping at the box office adds pressure to the project that follows. In May 2027, Shawn Levy’s Starfighter will introduce Ryan Gosling in a standalone adventure set five years after The Rise of Skywalker. Disney describes it as an entirely original story with new characters, exploring an era the films have never covered.

It’s a gamble. Disney obviously knows that the brand is showing signs of fatigue after years of tiresome television spinoffs with mixed to negative receptions (The Book of Boba Fett, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Ahsoka, The Acolyte, The Mandalorian Season 3 — take your pick).

But history also shows the galaxy far, far away can reinvent itself. And if Starfighter connects with audiences, it could chart a new course for the saga. If it doesn’t, the era of Star Wars as a theatrical titan may finally be over.

Come May the 4th next year, fans will undoubtedly be excited to celebrate their favorite franchise — just like they do every year, regardless of the state of the franchise. But what’s hard to imagine is anyone feeling the same way about a film which, at that time, will be just a little over two weeks away. The Mandalorian & Grogu releases on May 22, 2026.

Starfighter releases on May 28, 2027.

Would you like to see Rey appear in Starfighter? Let us know your thoughts!